Why to not (always) trust your own brain
We have all been through this scenario — the new year kicks in and you are swept up in the hype of setting yourself goals for the year, certain milestones you’d like to reach professionally or personally.
Some go beyond goal setting and actually write down how they want togo about achieving said goal, but as the months go by, the sobering truth kicks in: you’re not nearly where you want to be. Things didn’t pan out as planned. You planned to lose 10kgs in 3 months, but work exhausted you too much to buy the proper ingredients, so instead you ordered Chinese more than you originally anticipated.
It’s the story of millions — that’s why setting and talking about your goals is cheap. It’s not noble to have them. It's much rarer to see an individual who has commitments, plans accordingly and achieves them with surgical precision.
In psychology there’s an explanation as to why we are horrible at planning our immediate future and setting goals — it’s a cognitive bias known as the „planning fallacy“ discovered and extensively studied by Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman.
In the 1970s, Kahneman and his research partner Amos Tversky were part of a team tasked with writing a high school curriculum in Israel. The team, which included educators and psychologists, embarked on this project with enthusiasm and confidence. At the beginning of the project, Kahneman asked each member of the team to privately write down how long they thought the project would take to complete. The estimates ranged from 1.5 to 2.5 years.
However, the project ended up taking nearly eight years to complete, far exceeding everyone's initial estimates. Reflecting on this, Kahneman realized that everyone, including himself, had failed to consider potential obstacles and setbacks.
They had been overly optimistic about the timeline, ignoring the complexities and delays that could occur. This was despite having access to historical data from similar projects which could have provided a more realistic timeframe.
This experience led Kahneman and Tversky to investigate the cognitive biases behind time estimation and project planning. They discovered that individuals tend to focus on the most optimistic scenario while planning, neglecting potential problems and the time they might take to resolve.
Knowing that your brain tends to fall victim to its overly optimistic side can actually help you stop yourself in your tracks. I did some digging into techniques on how to counterbalance your own bias to reach your goals more effectively:
Try using reference class forecasting: This involves looking at historical data from similar projects to guide your current planning, making your predictions more realistic by reducing the natural optimism bias we all have. Another useful method is breaking down tasks into smaller, more manageable pieces. This way, you can estimate the time and effort needed for each component more accurately than you would for a large, vague project. Finally, practice regular review and adjustment. Set periodic checkpoints to assess your progress and make necessary adjustments, ensuring your plans stay realistic and adaptable to any changes or challenges that come up.
Why is this important?
Big ambitious projects take a lot of time and patience and you will inevitably face setbacks. We set ourselves up for disappointment when we don’t plan correctly, because each setback is highlighted more intensely against the backdrop of our grand ambition — planning in a more rational, calculated way can help you put your challenges into a more accurate and healthy perspective.
I'm still not the best at setting goals for myself – but a better understanding of my own cognitive biases has definitely helped me set more achievable milestones, so that I don't set myself up for frustration and disappointment, but can continue with clarity of where I am versus where I need to be.
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